May 26, 2013 (TSR) – The German foreign intelligence agency (Bundesnachrichtendienst, BND) revised its assessment of the situation in Syria fundamentally and radically reveals Spiegel Online [1].
For awhile, BND President Gerhard Schindler have informed selected German security policymakers in secret meetings that the Syrian rebel opposition would have easy successful offensives against the government troops at any time since the military rulers of Bashar al-Assad were no longer stable and last that long.
Even in late summer 2012, Schindler had briefings for government officials and parliamentarians, but also in interviews, he predicted the quick end of Assad in the first months of 2013, arguing that there’s a precarious supply situation in the Assad military, in addition to the ‘very high number of deserters’ within the high officer ranks. Consequently, the BND prophesied the “end phase of the regime.”
That view has changed the last few weeks. The new analysis: The Syrian Arab Army is stronger than ever, while the rebel movement is in disarray.
Today, German Federal Intelligence Service, the BND, views it very differently by looking on the basis of reality on the ground and on the basis of graphs and maps, they announced Assad’s victory before the end of the year.
The BND believes that the Syrian Arab Army has succeeded in securing its supply lines, regained their fully functional supply routes for weapons and in cutting those of the “insurgents” (largely foreign jihadists, backed by NATO and the GCC). The retrieval of al-Qusayir presages that of the entire district of Homs and the collapse of the partition plans, with the possible exception of a Kurdish area.
The West and Gulf states are obviously desperate and baffled: How can the Assad army fend spontaneous rebel attacks and even regain lost ground after all what they have been throwing at them? Just this Saturday, units of the Syrian Armed Forces restored security and stability to the villages of al-Hamdiyeh and al-Shamatiyeh in the countryside of Idleb, gaining full control over the two villages after having eliminated all terrorists and destroyed their last dens and dismantled a number of explosive devices the terrorists had planted in the villages. In the same context, the army units regained control over the village of Dahret Abad Rabah in al-Lairamoun area in Aleppo.
The statements of the intelligence chiefs are consistent with the few reports from Syria:
- The Syrian regime managed in recent weeks, the heartland of his power , the region of Damascus, Homs over to the coast- back to back.
- The Assad troops have been able to push the Syrian rebels from several suburbs of Damascus, and cut off their supply route to the south.
- Currently, the regime also cuts the insurgents from the supply routes to the west.
The location of the rebels, among them several groups of Islamist militants with links to al-Qaeda terrorist network, the BND looks pretty bleak. Schindler reported that the rebels would wear out in power struggles for dominance in some areas. In addition, the regime troops had now cut almost all functioning supply routes for weapons and transport of injured fighters. Each new battle further weaken the militias, the BND chief said.
Here’s how desperation spells out as the foreign powers have lost:
1) The very reason for the USA went to Russia making the deal to implement the Geneva Communiqué in full scope – to avoid embarrassment.
2) The U.K. and France are pushing for the European Union’s arms embargo on Syria to be lifted, thereby making it easier to arm Assad’s opposition.
While the British and French might be advocating for more direct intervention in Syria the German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle, who opposed having German troops participate in the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon and deploying the German military as part of the intervention in Libya, has expressed doubt that a military plan in Syria would establish lasting peace.
From an interview Westerwelle did with Das Spiegel:
SPIEGEL: The opposition wants weapons.
Westerwelle: We have to answer two questions: Will fewer people die if more weapons are sent to Syria? And can it be ensured that these weapons do not end up in the hands of extremists, terrorists and jihadists, for whom Damascus is merely a staging post on the road to Jerusalem?
SPIEGEL: Those forces have already been armed.
Westerwelle: Let’s assume a modern antiaircraft system falls into the hands of anti-Semitic jihadists or a terrorist group like the Al-Nusra brigades. What would that mean for civil aviation in the region, and for Israel’s security? There are also no easy answers to the question of arms shipments.
SPIEGEL: France and Great Britain now have a different response to this question than Germany.
Westerwelle: I respect that, because I can understand the motives. If our friends stick to their position, the European Union arms embargo will expire this month. Then we will have to ensure that the program of sanctions against the regime continues to apply in other ways.
3) Israel’s illegal aggression
SAVE FACE: The Peace Conference
BND’s forecasts for the Assad regime is the therefore quite positive at once. To put an end to the conflict, Schindler thinks that with the support of the Lebanese Hezbollah militia troops, the Syrian Arab forces need to reconquer the entire south of the country by the end of 2013. The last refuge of the insurgents would only be north where Kurdish rebels had their lands firmly in hand.
The Schindler’s statements about the structure of the rebels leave little hope for serious negotiations between the opposition and Assad’s government. Thus, there is no functioning chain of command between the appointed leaders of the opposition abroad and the militias in Syria. The fighters simply do not recognize the political leadership according to the BND.
The United Nations currently trying hard, the two sides in a non-scheduled peace conference in Geneva to get a table.
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[1] “Bürgerkrieg in Syrien : BND prognostiziert Vormarsch der Assad-Armee,” by Matthias Gebauer, Spiegel Online, 22 May 2013.
