May 22, 2012 (TSR) – Recent world assurances that there would be no military intervention in Syria, coupled with consensual statements by UN officials and observers about the performance of the Syrian government, has to some extent raised optimism that Syria will not be caught in a similar Libyan scenario.
After nearly 15 months of unrest across the country and worldwide vitriolic criticism of the government’s crackdown on protesters, as well as calls on the Syrian President Bashar al- Assad to step down, there has been recently a noticeable leniency and to some extent a shift in the superpowers’ stands.
In a joint statement issued recently, the G8 leaders said “The Syrian government and all parties must immediately and fully adhere to commitments to implement the six-point plan of UN and Arab League Joint Special Envoy Kofi Annan.”
U.S. President Barack Obama has also said the only solution to the lingering problem in Syria is for the Syrian government to commit itself to Annan’s plan.
For his side, The U.S. ambassador to NATO said the alliance has no plans for military intervention in the Syrian crisis. Ivo Daalder told reporters late Sunday there is “no planning going on that’s related to a NATO role in Syria.”
Meanwhile, UN Under-Secretary-General Herve Ladsous, who is on a current visit to Syria, warned Monday that there is in Syria a third party that try to capitalize on the current situation to achieve certain gains.
He said the violence in the country has not ceased “but clearly it diminishes.” He however urged the Syrian government to take some confidence-building measures by giving access to prisoners and allow peaceful demonstration.
There are now in Syria some 270 UN military observers monitoring the cease-fire that has gone into effect on April 12.
The head of the UN observers’ mission in Syria, Maj. Gen. Robert Mood, has praised the Syrian government, saying it is a ” professional government … it met you with hospitality and respect.”
“I am sending back Mr. Ladsous back to New York with a different understanding of what Syria is about than what he reads in the headlines in the media,” he said, noting that foreign media is giving different picture about what is really happening in Syria.
Al-Sabah, an Iraqi newspaper said Monday that there are ongoing Iraqi efforts to host a conference in Iraq to deal with the Syrian crisis and which will combine all conflicting parties.
The paper, quoting senior Iraqi officials, said the conference would be held under the auspices of the Arab League and the United Nations. It said that Iraqi initiative would be very similar to the Gulf plan in Yemen and would call for a government of national unity that represents all components of the Syrian people, to be followed by a Security Council resolution banning interference in the internal affairs of the Syrians.
The Iraqi initiative would propose that all parties should stick to an immediate cease-fire and demand from regional and international parties to stop arming both sides, before entering into direct negotiations in Syria.
Observers in Syria believe that the softened tone stems from mounting fears that violence in Syria would spill over to neighboring countries, and recent fighting in Tripoli in Lebanon between pro- and anti-Assad Lebanese has further stoked those fears.
They attribute this moderate position to a set of interlocking internal and external factors, mainly the fact that Obama, before nearly five months of the presidential elections, is not ready for a new military adventure, neither in Syria nor in Iran. So the American position on Syria is characterized by a “reservation.”
NATO chief Anders Fogh Rasmussen, in a press conference during a NATO summit in Chicago on Thursday, raised concern about the violence in Syria, but stressed that the alliance has “no intention” of any military action against the Syrian administration.
According to European media reports, there are other factors behind the decision of the alliance, including the need to take into account the attitude of Russia, Syria’s close ally, in many basic files: mainly the withdrawal of troops operating in Afghanistan, and the Iranian nuclear file.
While UN’s Ban Ki-moon said Monday that the process of seeking a peaceful settlement to the crisis in Syria reached a “delicate stage,” expressing concerns over a potential eruption of a civil war in Syria, regional observers show optimistic view, contending that the Syrian crisis will soon come to an end as the opposition would soon realize that they would be no longer able to weather the storm alone after being abandoned by those who had at the beginning provoked it.
